Key To Success In Sports Wagering? Avoiding Multiple Personality Disorder
by Brandon Quick - 10/30/2006

Over a couple of drinks, a friend of mine recently acknowledged his plight and subsequent reality check in the world of sports betting. His moment of truth came on his honeymoon no less, when he found himself sneaking out of bed (away from his new bride) to check the score of the Hawaii game at 2 am.

He reacted to the Rainbows not covering the spread with a cursing tirade that roused his sleeping wife. When she walked into the living area of their suite, he was chugging cheap scotch from the bottle and swearing off gambling forever. As it turned out, my friend had lost half his bankroll that day and was making the fatal mistake of trying to recoup on a game he probably spent five minutes "handicapping." Fortunately for him, his wife was more understanding than some and is helping him to keep his promise.

I know, I know.you're all above such impetuous behavior right? So let's suppose you've never bet a random game for an amount disproportionate to your bankroll. That only leaves us with a thousand other mistakes you can make as a gambler. I've made them, you've made them, and our friends make them. It's time to learn from our behavior as degenerate/irresponsible gamblers, start having fun, and perhaps more importantly, start making money.

Most of the cardinal sins I've identified are a result of basic sports betting personality types - or personas as I like to call them. Forget your ability to identify mismatches, or analyze line movements. I'm talking about destructive betting characteristics that doom a lot of players long before the ball is kicked, the pitch is thrown, or the puck is dropped. I'm talking about the kinds of flaws that cloud our judgment and keep us from reaching our potential as sports bettors.

The interesting thing is, these "personas" are usually divergent from our rational, everyday selves. There must be something about autumn, pigskin, and money that alter the chemistry of the brain. Which begs the question: Who's going to pay the bills as you blow your wad on Saturday and Sunday's football games while your wife/girlfriend/ is doing the same thing on shoes, tequila, and lap dances? Or is that just my girlfriend?

Anyway, let's take a look at some of our misguided gambling brethren.

Destructive Persona A- "Mr. Big Play"

This is the kind of guy who always LOVES a game. It doesn't matter what weekend you ask him, he's always got three or four plays he thinks can't lose. So what does he do? He unloads on these same two or three games, and usually loses more than he wins. I've known a lot of sports gamblers, and it usually spells trouble when a guy tells you he has a game that's a "mortal lock." I haven't quite figured it out, but most gamblers aren't good at distinguishing what makes one play better than another. It's money mismanagement at its purest form, and we've all been guilty at some point. This kind of wanton activity makes it difficult to turn a profit even if you're hitting over 60% of your plays. I'm not suggesting that you never make a big play, but in most instances, anything riskier than a double play is reckless.

Destructive Persona B- "Mr. Playtheboard"

This guy is the near opposite of Mr. Big Play. Mr. Playtheboard looks at the lines and can't decide which games to play and which ones he'd be better off staying away from. It's the result of indecision, lack of confidence, or perhaps just poor handicapping. The bad thing about this guy is that he usually kills himself by playing eight, nine, or (gulp) more games in one day. He rationalizes this behavior by "going small," maybe staking half a unit on his smorgasboard of plays. In the precarious world of sports gambling, there is one thing I'm absolutely sure of and that is this: picking point spread winners is a difficult business. Most players will not succeed playing more than three or four games per day. When I look at a college football card, I usually see about six games that interest me. From there, I'll take those six and dwindle that down to two or three, four plays at the very most. I'll usually play those games evenly, and prosper if I'm right more often than I'm wrong. Sounds simple, doesn't it?

Destructive Persona C- "Mr. The World is My Oyster"

Here I'm referring to one of the absolute worst sports betting personalities you can have. This is the guy who likes Wisconsin at noon, Texas at 3:30, a small conference game later in the day, and of course, Hawaii at midnight. Ok, I know it's the information age, but how is it possible to have good information on teams spread out all over the country? Unless you have very reliable sources in every region of America, it's impossible to consistently pick point spread winners with teams separated by time zones, conference affiliation, and other shit you know nothing about. In other words, stick to the teams and conferences YOU KNOW.

Great example. In 2004, I made a killing betting the Louisville Cardinals. I bet them to cover, I bet the over, and I made serious coin. Vegas always seemed to be behind the curve. They didn't give them credit because they were a C-USA team at that time, and they didn't realize how explosive Bobby Petrino's offense was. How did I know what it seemed so difficult for the "experts" to realize? I'd like to say I'm smarter, but the truth is, I just knew more about one team. And why shouldn't I? I live in Louisville!

Destructive Persona D- "Mr. Nervous Nellie"
This is the guy who seems to develop a severe case of paranoia when it comes to sports betting. He likes a game, but just can't seem to pull the trigger. Or worse yet, he'll actually take the other side of the game he liked! Why? Because he overanalyzes and misuses the resources that are available. In this case, the information age is a curse. The Nervous Nellie will spend all his time and energy trying to decipher line movement, "public plays," and my favorite, "the trap game." Those things have some validity, but why should I talk myself out of playing, say the Bengals, just because some website reveals 80% of the public is playing that side? Or why should I change my play because the "sharps" seem to be on the other side? And lastly, what is a "trap game"? The odds makers only job is to get en equal amount of bettors on both sides of the action!

You have to remember that someone is always going to like the other side - that's what makes it gambling. You've got to consider all opinions, but bet with your own. Paralysis by analysis, as a sports psychologist dubbed it years ago, can be devastating in the sports betting world. If you can be talked out of a play, then either you have no confidence in your handicapping, or you didn't like it that much in the first place.

Putting It All Together

How much of what I've written so far hits too close to home? The good news is it's all easily correctable. This isn't rocket science, and we're not curing cancer. Use common sense! Play what you know, play within your bankroll, stick to a modest number of weekend wagers, and don't overanalyze! But above all, remember this is supposed to be fun. If you aren't capable of enjoying yourself while making a profit, then it's probably advisable to find another form of recreation. Just ask my newly wed buddy.

Note from the Editor: This article reflects the opinion of one of our many clients. We believe he's "spot-on" in his analysis of the various types of gambling personas. Should you choose to go it alone in your handicapping, this article should help you steer clear of the obvious pitfalls. Of course, as professional handicappers, the staff of MADWINNERS does every thing possible to avoid these mistakes. Check out our PERSONALCAPPER Section for more information. Thanks.

The Madcappers are always available to answer your questions regarding anything related to sports betting. Even if you are not yet enrolled in our Personalcapper service we invite you to call us at 800-511-3003 with any questions. Or email us madcappers@madwinners.com